C.A.R. 2019 Housing Forecast
Thu, 17 Jan 2019 22:40:17 GMT

OscarWcolorHelp your clients by gaining the knowledge you need on the 2019 real estate housing market.

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Mon, 14 Jan 2019 21:27:56 GMT
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Tom Money, Legendary at PSAR, has passed away
Fri, 11 Jan 2019 23:27:11 GMT
TomMoney (2)Tom Money, a longtime PSAR member and past President (1984) passed away at his home in Bonita on Jan. 5, 2019, after a courageous fight with cancer. He was 75.

A year ago, he was diagnosed with cholangiocarcinoma, a rare bile duct cancer in the liver, according to his wife Sherry. “He got to live each day the best he could,” said Sherry. “He didn’t dwell on ‘Why me?’ He was very positive.”

Tom was considered a legendary figure at PSAR. He served as President when the Association was called the San Diego Bay Cities Board of REALTORS® (the Association’s name was changed to PSAR in 1993).

“He took great delight in hooking up first time buyers with a home,” said Sherry.

In addition to serving as President, Tom served on numerous PSAR committees as a member and chair, including the Government Affairs Committee. He also served as a California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) Director. He was a recipient of the PSAR REALTOR® of the Year award.

In a 2015 interview with PSAR, Tom voiced his long-time support for the Association. “Over the many decades, the Association has never lost its focus, which is to serve its members and homeowners.”

“He was a good friend who helped me a great deal when I first got hired at PSAR,” said Rich D'Ascoli, CEO, PSAR. “Last summer, a big celebration of life event was held for him when he was still alive and many elected officials and dignitaries attended to honor him.”

The City of Chula Vista declared Aug, 8, 2018, as “Tom Money Day.” The celebration gathering drew the attendance of five mayors of Chula Vista to honor him.

In a recent edition of The Star-News newspaper, Chula Vista Mayor Mary Casillas Salas said, “Tom Money was more than a successful businessman and realtor. He had a great sense of community pride and was someone who believed in giving back through volunteerism on a number of boards, commissions, and especially devoting his time and treasure through his leadership and service in our Chula Vista Kiwanis Club. He will be missed.”

Thomas George Money was born at San Diego’s Mercy Hospital on March 3, 1943.

He met Sherry Seagraves, in August of 1970, on a blind date, and they married three years later, Aug. 25, 1973 in Balboa Park.

Tom attended local elementary schools and graduated from Chula Vista High School (class of 1961). In high school, he was the photographer for the Spartan newspaper. He contributed a photo of President Dwight D. Eisenhower for the Senior Year Scroll.

Tom operated Money Realty at 355 Third Ave. in Chula Vista. His office in Downtown Chula Vista holds the longevity record in San Diego County for continuous location as a real estate sales office. The office was opened by his father Mark in 1944, when the company was called Mark H. Money & Associates. Previously, Mark had relocated the family from Wisconsin to work in San Diego as an aircraft mechanic.

In 1963, after his father’s passing, Tom, age 28 at the time, joined the family real estate business as a REALTOR® and maintained the same office address since then. Tom’s mother Jane served as broker for the real estate company.

In addition to his service to PSAR, Tom was active in the community as a volunteer with a number of service clubs, charities and community organizations. In the 1970s and 1980s, he served on the board of the Junior Chula Vista Chamber of Commerce. He later served on the boards of the Third Avenue Village Association (TAVA) and Chula Vista Chamber of Commerce. He also served as president of the Chula Vista Kiwanis Club. He also served on an advisory board for Scripps Health.

Tom’s passion was sailing. He served on a committee in 1976 to save the Star of India, and then later sailed on the world’s oldest active sailing ship as part of the crew. The Star of India, a full-rigged iron windjammer ship built in 1863, is moored along Harbor Drive in Downtown San Diego and operated by the Maritime Museum of San Diego. Tom also was instrumental in having the America’s Cup trophy on display at Harbor Days, a summertime community event now known as Chula Vista HarborFest.

Tom experienced a number of sailing adventures during his life. As a young man, one of his adventures consisted of hitchhiking around the world on sailboats. He started a three-part, two-year journey around the globe in Hawaii. “I was 22 years old and working in Honolulu at odd jobs when I met a guy sailing to Tahiti in French Polynesia in the South Pacific who needed a crew member,” said Tom in a 2015 interview. “Then, in Tahiti I met a guy sailing to Africa who also needed a crew member. Then, in Africa, I met a guy sailing to Newport, Rhode Island. So, I call it a round-the-world trip on a sailboat as a hitchhiker.”

In 1969, Tom joined a gold mining company that was dredging the Bering Sea, between Alaska and Russia, looking for gold. According to Tom, “We were off the coast of Nome and a big storm came in and created huge chunks of ice. Our boat was crushed by the ice and we walked ashore on the ice about a quarter mile. The whole town turned out in the middle of the night with sleds to help us get our gear off the boat before it sank.”

In 1970, Tom was member of the crew who sailed a 100-foot-long, square-rigged, iron windjammer ship (similar to the Star of India) from Tahiti to Sydney, Australia, to commemorate Captain James Cook’s discovery of Australia in 1770.

In 1991, at age 48, Tom sailed across the Pacific Ocean, 2,250 miles in 12-and-a-half days, from San Diego to Honolulu, with himself and National City resident John Walton, a member of the Walton family who founded Wal-Mart (John was a son of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton). A race was being held to raise money for Mercy Hospital and John Walton was building a new style of trimaran sailboats that were lightweight and fast (a trimaran is a multi-hull sail boat that comprises a main hull and two smaller outrigger hulls, or floats, which are attached to the main hull with lateral beams).

According to Tom, “I went to John and asked him to sponsor me in this race. He kept asking me questions and then decided to go with me. We finished first by a day-and-a-half, but were declared to be in second place by 15 minutes because of our ship’s handicap. In some races, boats have handicaps just like golfers.” (John Walton passed away on June 27, 2005, in a private plane crash in Wyoming).

Tom is survived by his wife Sherry, two daughters, Courtney Money and Colleen Varnum and husband Matt, and two grandsons, Evan and Zach; sisters Susanna Money of San Diego and Roxanne Money Zunich and her husband John of Fresno. He was preceded in death by his parents Mark H. Money and Jane Milke Money.

Broker and longtime family friend Mayra Swanson recently took over the real estate business. A memorial service will be held at 3 p.m., Sunday, Feb. 24, at the San Diego Yacht Club 1011 Anchorage Lane, San Diego, 92106. To RSVP for the service, send an e-mail to Mayra at, or call her at 619-422-0177. His ashes will be scattered off the coast of Pt. Loma, the family said.
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Eroding Affordability in 2019 California Housing Market Forecast, says C.A.R.
Fri, 04 Jan 2019 22:46:05 GMT
411-19-01-05What’s in store for the year ahead in the housing market?

The California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reports that a combination of high home prices and eroding affordability is expected to cut into housing demand and contribute to a weaker housing market in 2019.

C.A.R. is projecting a 3.3 percent decline in existing single-family home sales in 2019, down from a projected 410,460 in 2018 to 396,800 in 2019. The 2018 figure is 3.2 percent lower compared to the 424,100 homes sold in 2017.

“While home prices are predicted to temper next year, interest rates will likely rise and compound housing affordability issues,” said C.A.R. 2018 president Steve White. “Would-be buyers who are concerned that home prices may have peaked will wait on the sidelines until they have more clarity on where the housing market is headed. This could hold back housing demand and hamper home sales in 2019.”

C.A.R. also is forecasting growth in the U.S. gross domestic product of 2.4 percent in 2019, after a projected gain of 3.0 percent in 2018. With California’s nonfarm job growth at 1.4 percent, down from a projected 2.0 percent in 2018, the state’s unemployment rate will remain at 4.3 percent in 2019, unchanged from 2018’s figure but down from and 4.8 percent in 2017.

C.A.R. also predicts the average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will rise to 5.2 percent in 2019, up from 4.7 percent in 2018 and 4.0 percent in 2017, but will still remain low by historical standards.

Rising mortgage interest rates coupled with higher home prices in California is expected to mean that only 25 percent of households statewide will be able to afford a median-priced home in 2019, said C.A.R. If the past is any indication, the percentage of households that will be able to afford a single-family home in San Diego County next year will be even fewer.

The median home price statewide is forecast to increase 3.1 percent to $593,450 in 2019, following a projected 7.0 percent increase in 2018 to $575,800, according to C.A.R.

“The surge in home prices over the past few years due to the housing supply shortage has finally taken a toll on the market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Despite an improvement in supply conditions, there is a high level of uncertainty about the direction of the market that is affecting homebuying decisions. This psychological effect is creating a mismatch in price expectations between buyers and sellers and will limit price growth in the upcoming year.”

Outmigration, resulting from the state’s housing affordability issue, will also be a primary concern for the California housing market in 2019 as interest rates are expected to rise further next year. The high housing cost is driving Californians to leave their current county or even the state.

According to C.A.R.’s 2018 State of the Housing Market/Study of Housing: Insight, Forecast, Trends (SHIFT) report, 28 percent of homebuyers moved out of the county in which they previously resided in 2018, up from 21 percent in 2017.

The outmigration trend was even worse in the Bay Area, where housing was the least affordable, with 35 percent of homebuyers moving out because of affordability constraints. Southern California did not fare any better as 35 percent of homebuyers moved out of their county for the same reason, a significant jump from 21 percent in 2017. The substantial surge in homebuyers fleeing the state is reflected by the home sales decline in Southern California, which was down on a year-over-year basis for the first eight months of 2018.

Outmigration will not abate as long as home prices are out of reach and interest rates rise in the upcoming year, said C.A.R.
Housing Market Sputters in November, says C.A.R.
Fri, 28 Dec 2018 18:21:23 GMT
Ave_days_on_Market_Med_price-3California home sales continued their downward trajectory trend across the state for the seventh consecutive month in November as prospective buyers continued to wait out on the sidelines, according to the latest housing market report for home sales and prices from the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R).

November’s sales figure was down 3.9 percent from October and 13.4 percent from November 2017. Homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 381,400 units in November, compared to 440,340 a year ago. November marked the fourth month in a row that sales were below 400,000.

Sales in San Diego were down 8.4 percent in November 2018 from October 2018 and 11.0 percent compared to November 2017.

“While many home buyers continue to sit on the sidelines, serious buyers who are in a position to purchase should take advantage of this window of opportunity,” said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. “Now that interest rates have pulled back, home prices have tapered, and inventory has improved, home buyers’ prospects of getting into a home are more positive.”

C.A.R. said November’s statewide median home price declined to $554,760, down 3.0 percent from $572,000 in October but up 1.5 percent from a revised $546,820 in November 2017.

Prices are falling in San Diego as well. The median price in November 2018 was $626,000, down 1.5 percent from $635,500 in October 2018, but still 1.0 percent above last November’s $619,900.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 381,400 units in November, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

“The slowdown in price growth is occurring throughout the state, including regions that have strong economic fundamentals such as the San Francisco Bay Area,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The deceleration in home price appreciation should be a welcome sign for potential buyers who have struggled in recent years against low inventory and rapidly rising home prices.”

Other key points from C.A.R.’s November 2018 resale housing report included:
  • Statewide active listings rose for the eighth consecutive month after nearly three straight years of declines, increasing 31 percent from the previous year. November’s listings increase was the largest since April 2014.
  • The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home edged up from 22 days in November 2017 to 28 days in November 2018. Meanwhile, in San Diego County, the median number of days a home remained unsold on the market was 22 days in November 2018, compared to 24 days in October 2018 and 17 days in November 2017.
  • The unsold inventory index, which is a ratio of inventory over sales, increased year-to-year from 2.9 months in November 2017 to 3.7 months in November 2018. The index measures the number of months it would take to sell the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
  • On a region-wide, non-seasonally adjusted basis, sales dropped double-digits on a year-over-year basis in the San Francisco Bay Area, the Central Coast, and the Southern California regions, while the Central Valley region experienced a relatively small sales dip of 3.9 percent.
  • Forty-one of the 51 counties reported by C.A.R. posted a sales decline in November with an average year-over-year sales decline of 16.8 percent. Twenty-six counties recorded double-digit sales drops on an annual basis.
  • The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 4.87 percent in November, up from 3.92 percent in November 2017, according to Freddie Mac. The five-year, adjustable mortgage interest rate also increased in November to an average of 4.11 percent from 3.24 from November 2017.
In other recent real estate and economic news, according to news reports:
  • San Diego leads the nation with the most home price reductions this year. The share of home listings with a price cut grew to its highest level in at least eight years, says a recent analysis from Trulia. San Diego had the most reductions, 20.5 percent, of the 100 biggest metro areas in the United States so far this year. San Diego was tied with Tampa, which also saw 20.5 percent of homes with a price cut.
  • The San Diego metropolitan area has been ranked as the fifth least popular home buying market for millennials in the United States, according to the latest LendingTree report. The company found that San Diego-area millennials only accounted for about 35 percent of the home loan purchase requests for the first 11 months of the year. Tampa was ranked as the least popular market for millennial homebuyer loan requests, followed by Las Vegas, Miami and Orlando. Salt Lake City topped the list for the most millennial home loan requests at 51 percent. It was followed by Minneapolis and Pittsburgh, where nearly half of the requested loans were from millennials.
  • Few millennial renters can afford down payment on a home. According to Apartment List’s 2018 Millennial Homeownership Report, 88 percent of millennial renters in San Diego say that they plan to purchase a home at some point in the future, but just 3 percent expect to do so within the next year, while 37 percent say that they won't buy for at least five years. The survey of 6,400 millennial renters found that while the overwhelming majority of those surveyed would like to purchase a home at some point in the future, far fewer are financially prepared to do so in the near term. Of the millennial renters in San Diego who plan to purchase a home, 59 percent have zero down payment savings, while just 14 percent have saved $10,000 or more, according to the survey.
  • With average rents nearing $2,000 a month, San Diego may be one of the pricier places for millennial renters in the U.S. Despite the cost, however, a survey by the rental platform company Zumper said that only 2 percent of millennials are getting help from their parents for rent. San Diego appears to be the most independent city with only 2 percent of respondents who had their parents help with rent, compared to 24 percent in Detroit. Austin had the second largest proportion of millennials in need at 23 percent.
  • San Diego had the second lowest unemployment rate among California’s most populous metro areas this year between July and September, according to a report released Wednesday by the San Diego Regional Economic Development Corp. San Diego’s third-quarter unemployment rate sat at 3.2 percent, bested only by San Francisco at 2.5 percent. The rates in both cities fell 0.5 percent between the second and third quarters. Compared to the other most populous metro areas in the country, San Diego ranked 10th in the third-quarter unemployment rate.